Yemeni government escalates attacks against Houthis: What’s next?
The internationally recognised government in Yemen says that its forces have conducted more than 100 military operations against the Houthi armed group, also known as Ansar Allah, in the past 24 hours as fighting spreads in the country.
At least 133 operations were conducted against “the capabilities and elements of the terrorist Houthi militia”, with the participation of army units stationed along front-line positions, Yemen army spokesperson Colonel Majed al-Nuzaili posted on X on Tuesday.
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The latest offensive by the Saudi-backed government came after Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed an attack on “a Saudi-led coalition landing ship and four accompanying warships” near the Yemeni port city of al-Makha (Mocha), located in Taiz province.
In recent weeks, fighting has erupted across multiple fronts, with clashes reported in several provinces – including Marib, al-Jawf, Hadramout, Hodeidah, Taiz, al-Dhale and Lahj. The Iran-aligned Houthis, who control vast swaths of northern Yemen including the capital Sanaa, have also launched strikes beyond the country’s borders, targeting Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping.
An informal, years-long period of calm that began with a temporary United Nations-brokered truce in 2022 has come to an end, as the Arab region’s most impoverished nation teeters on the edge of yet another bout of civil war.
What caused the fighting?
The eruption of fighting is linked to local as well as regional developments.
In late June, as regional tensions rose due to the United States-Iran war, both Yemen’s internationally recognised government and its opponent, the Houthi armed group, began mobilising some of their fighters.
Then in July, a strike claimed by the Yemeni government on Sanaa airport – in an effort to stop a plane from Iran landing – led the Houthis to declare a naval blockade of the kingdom and initiate a general mobilisation. This was followed by an escalation in attacks on Red Sea shipping and strikes on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities.
The government forces launched a preemptive operation on August 6 against what they called Houthi weapons-smuggling routes. The heaviest Houthi bombardment in years followed, with a chain of escalations afterwards.
Who’s fighting whom?
Ali al-Dhahab, an expert in military and strategic affairs, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis are backed by Iran and by allied groups including Hezbollah, Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces factions and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Their support ranges from weapons and training to intelligence, he said.
Facing off against them is Yemen’s internationally-recognised government, comprising an alliance of armed factions opposed to Houthi control and backed by a Saudi-led coalition of Arab states.
Al-Dhahab said the factions have moved closer to integration under Yemen’s Ministry of Defence. They include the Joint Forces on the western coast, Nation’s Shield Forces, Emergency Forces and the Southern Giants Brigade.
Where is fighting occurring?
Fighting has occurred on a number of fronts simultaneously. They include:
Marib and Hadramout
In Marib, which is largely held by government forces, the line of contact forms an arc stretching from the northwest to the southeast of the province, with clashes on fronts all across the line.
Houthi missiles and drones have also struck deep inside the province, including hits on Marib city and several displacement camps. The province hosts more than two million displaced people.
The most intense Houthi strike came on August 6, when a number of missiles and drones targeted government military camps in al-Ruwaik and al-Thaniyah in Marib and al-Abr in Hadramout, killing and injuring dozens.
For more than a week, Houthis have continued intermittent attacks on positions inside government-controlled areas of Marib and Hadramout.
Al-Jawf
Al-Jawf forms part of a desert belt extending between Marib and the border with Saudi Arabia in the north. The area has witnessed repeated Houthi attempts to penetrate army lines, which government forces have repelled.
Taiz and Hodeidah
In the contested Taiz province, on the Bab al-Mandeb strait, government forces hold Taiz city while the Houthis control the areas surrounding it to the north. Intermittent artillery and machinegun clashes have occurred across the front line.
Since August 9, the Houthis have repeatedly targeted the port city of al-Makha with missiles and drones. At least seven people were killed and 35 others injured in an August 9 attack.
In Hodeidah, which is largely under Houthi control, fighting has concentrated near the southwestern cities of Hays and al-Khawkhah, which are government-held.
On August 8, government forces carried out a dawn attack on Houthi command centres and fortifications in contested southern Hodeidah. Intermittent strikes and clashes between the two sides continue in the area.
Al-Dhale and Lahj
The contested province of al-Dhale, bordering the Houthi-controlled Ibb, is witnessing direct ground clashes.
A tense situation persists around areas of northern Lahj, where the Houthi presence extends into the largely government-controlled province.
What has changed on the battlefield?
Brigadier General Abdul Rahman al-Rubaie, a researcher in military and strategic affairs, believes that the outbreak of fighting on multiple fronts reflects a change in strategy by pro-government forces, which now “treat any Houthi attack on any front as an attack on the entire national body”.
He said it’s a consequence of the restructuring of the forces aligned with the government, working through joint operations rooms that encircle the Houthis from four directions, rather than an attempt to redraw zones of influence.
Al-Dhahab said pro-government forces have switched from a defensive posture to simultaneous preemptive strikes, and that the tactic itself is not new, but the years-long truce “kept it out of the media spotlight for a long time”.
What do the Houthis say?
Hamid Asim, deputy governor of Sanaa in the Houthi administration, told Al Jazeera that the escalation is meant “to prevent the blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia”.
He accused Riyadh of starting the escalation by bombing Sanaa airport, preventing ailing civilians from travelling abroad for treatment. He also accused Riyadh of massing fighters, vehicles and weapons on the outskirts of the capital, Sanaa.
“Are we supposed to wait until these people reach Sanaa to fight us?” he asked. “We will prevail, God willing, because we are defending ourselves.”
Riyadh has denied Houthi accusations and says it will continue to back Yemen’s government through the Saudi-led Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen, which has operated since 2015.
What happens next?
Analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera are divided over what comes next.
Al-Dhahab says a full-scale confrontation is unlikely soon, arguing that regional conditions do not yet afford the government and its coalition backers a decisive battle with “guaranteed results”.
He added the Houthis are trying to “hasten” a battle they know is unavoidable, making a large-scale confrontation possible before the year’s end.
Al-Rubaie, on the other hand, says the balance has tilted towards the government, and that a decisive outcome would come through a Yemeni decision backed by regional and international support.
Reporting originally appeared via Al Jazeera. Read the full source for additional context.