Opposition's unity pact faces test as principals plan make or break retreat

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The United Opposition is facing another crucial test of its ability to turn a broad anti-government alliance into a functioning political machine, with a two-day retreat.

The proposed meeting scheduled to take place on August 24 and 25 at Stoni Athi in Machakos County comes months after the postponement of a similar planned retreat. It is expected to bring together leaders of the group that refers to itself as United Alternative Government to address some of the most difficult questions confronting the opposition ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The questions include: who will run the coalition, how it will be organised, how decisions will be made and, ultimately, who will face President William Ruto in 2027.

The meeting comes after opposition principals met at a hotel in Nairobi and agreed to establish a secretariat, with each participating party expected to second two representatives to run the coalition's affairs.

The arrangement was intended to give the opposition a permanent administrative structure rather than continue operating through ad hoc meetings and rallies.

But the planned retreat is already raising a more fundamental question as to whether it will actually materialise this time round.

United Opposition spokesperson Mukhisa Kituyi remained cautious about discussing the agenda, saying he would only comment on the substance of the retreat once he is convinced that it will take place.

“I would rather not discuss the details of the agenda until I am satisfied that the retreat will actually take place. We have had meetings announced before that did not happen, so let us first establish that the principals will sit down. Once that is confirmed, I will be in a better position to speak about what will be discussed and what we expect to achieve,” Dr Kituyi told Sunday Nation.

His reservations are informed by the failure of an earlier retreat, which was announced but ultimately did not materialise, in what insiders linked to “competing interests.”

Wiper Patriotic Front vice-chairperson Mutula Kilonzo Jnr confirmed that a retreat was in the pipeline but maintained that: “No set date yet but it is in October.”

Asked about the August 24 and 25 plans, he said: “All dates are tentative and subject to constituent parties' concurrence.”

The uncertainty is particularly damaging because President Ruto and his allies have intensified their attacks on the opposition, portraying it as a loose collection of politicians without a coherent agenda or presidential candidate.

The President has also repeatedly alleged that former President Uhuru Kenyatta is financing and influencing sections of the opposition, a claim the former president and opposition politicians have rejected.

The Machakos meeting therefore comes at a delicate moment when the opposition needs to demonstrate that it can resolve its internal differences while simultaneously presenting itself as a credible alternative government.

The biggest challenge facing the meeting is that the opposition can no longer afford another gathering that ends with photographs, statements of unity and no concrete decisions.

The leaders have already held numerous meetings, appeared together at rallies and repeatedly promised to remain united until the 2027 election.

Yet some of the most important questions remain unresolved.

“There is still no fully operational secretariat. There is no agreed method for choosing a presidential candidate as the principals are yet to discuss a technical report presented to them early this year,” one insider told Sunday Nation.

People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua, one of the coalition's co-convenors, had stated that no decision had been made on the criteria, process or timeline for choosing the flag bearer.

This followed claims by Wiper leader Musyoka that Democracy for Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua had endorsed him for the top seat.

Wiper party spokesperson Ndegwa Njiru said the opposition is committed to presenting a single presidential candidate.

Mr Njiru said the planned opposition retreat should help the parties overcome their differences and agree on a common political strategy, including the process of selecting the coalition's flag bearer.

“Whether it is a retreat or any other forum, the objective is to make sure we agree on the best candidate. United Alternative Government is committed to producing one candidate to face President Ruto,” he said.

He dismissed claims that Wiper had entered into a political deal with former Deputy President Gachagua’s DCP, saying the two parties only share common political values.

“The only deal is that of friendship and common purpose brought about by shared values to better this country and ensure it attains good governance,” Mr Njiru said.

The retreat, therefore, has the potential to become the first serious attempt to move the coalition to organisational reality.

But it could equally expose how far apart the principals remain.

The pressure on the opposition has been amplified by President Ruto's increasingly aggressive criticism of the coalition.

His central attack is that the opposition has spent more time discussing who should succeed him than explaining what it would do differently once in government.

That criticism has forced the opposition to confront the need for a coherent policy agenda beyond the slogan of removing Dr Ruto from power.

The coalition's leaders have sought to present themselves as an alternative government rather than simply an electoral alliance.

“But that message becomes difficult to sustain when the opposition cannot agree on its own leadership structure, hence the reason we are heading for the retreat,” a source in the opposition disclosed.

The President has also sought to portray the opposition as being driven by interests outside the politicians currently presenting themselves as its leaders, particularly former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The allegations have added another layer to the coalition's internal tensions because some opposition politicians have strong historical or political relationships with the former president.

For the opposition, the most effective response would be to establish a transparent structure that makes it clear who makes decisions, how money is raised and spent and how the coalition will select its candidate.

That is precisely why the secretariat agreed upon at Tamarind could become critical.

The agreement for each party to second two representatives to the secretariat was meant to address one of the coalition's biggest weaknesses: the absence of a permanent administrative centre.

Without a secretariat, the coalition remains heavily dependent on the goodwill and availability of individual principals.

A functional secretariat would be expected to coordinate communication, policy development, joint activities, mobilisation and eventually the presidential nomination process.

It would also provide a mechanism for resolving disputes before they escalate into public confrontations.

The need for such an institution has become more urgent as the number of parties and political movements seeking association with the opposition continues to grow.

The United Opposition has brought together DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Jubilee's Fred Matiang'i, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, former Attorney-General Justin Muturi of DP, Ms Karua’s PLP and Party of National Unity leader Peter Munya, among other political figures.

The grouping has also attracted interest from politicians outside the original arrangement, including the Edwin Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi.

The biggest internal complication is perhaps the growing influence of Mr Gachagua and his DCP party.

DCP has increasingly presented itself as the principal political vehicle for the Mt Kenya region and has pushed the message of consolidating the region's vote.

This has created tension with politicians who want to establish independent political vehicles or negotiate with the opposition from outside DCP.

The recent hostility towards Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro illustrates the problem.

Mr Nyoro has left President Ruto's UDA and launched the People's Party of Kenya, while expressing willingness to work with the wider opposition.

Instead of being welcomed unconditionally, however, his political move has attracted criticism from DCP allies, including Nyandarua Senator John Methu, who described PPK as a “green wheelbarrow” and accused it of threatening to dilute DCP's influence in Mt Kenya.

The disagreement is significant because it exposes a contradiction at the heart of the opposition project.

The involvement of Mr Kenyatta in the wider opposition calculus is also said to be causing strained relations among principals.

The situation became more complicated after Mr Kenyatta endorsed Mr Musyoka’s leadership of Azimio.

However, within sections of the Kalonzo camp, there is concern that political and financial support associated with Mr Kenyatta could increasingly flow towards the Linda Mwananchi movement associated with Mr Sifuna.

Mr Sifuna's growing national visibility has already unsettled some established opposition politicians.

The concern among some Kalonzo allies is that Mr Sifuna could emerge as a younger and more energetic political alternative, potentially changing the balance of power within the broader opposition.

This has fueled speculation that Mr Kenyatta could eventually favour a ticket in which Mr Musyoka and Dr Matiang'i play second fiddle.

Dr Matiang'i's camp has also shown signs of discomfort with some of the coalition's internal dynamics.

The former Cabinet secretary has previously cautioned opposition politicians against turning political differences into accusations that some leaders are government moles or “wheelbarrows”.

He has argued that political parties can have competing presidential ambitions without becoming enemies.

That position reflects a wider concern that the coalition is becoming consumed by internal suspicion at precisely the moment when it should be developing a common agenda.

Dr Matiang'i is not alone.

Mr Muturi and Mr Munya have also openly expressed reservations about aspects of Mr Gachagua's political strategy.

Mr Njiru, however, pointed out that Wiper was open to working with all parties that shared its objectives.

“The more the merrier. Wiper shall stick to the rules and pursue the common purpose ideology,” he said.

Mr Njiru also defended Wiper leaders' recent visit to Mr Gachagua’s Wamunyoro, saying it was a long-overdue engagement that should not be overinterpreted.

“Nobody should read much into it,” he said, adding that every party remained independent in making its political decisions.

He welcomed cooperation with new political formations, saying Wiper would work with any party committed to removing President Ruto from power.

“I’d rather have the matter rest where Ndindi Nyoro left it at Safari Park. We will associate with any party that is keen on taking Kasongo home,” he said.

Reporting originally appeared via Nation Africa. Read the full source for additional context.