Why Orengo, Sifuna Linda Mwananchi Homa Bay rally is a high-stakes test for Nyanza

This story has significance for readers across Kenya and beyond.

The upcoming Linda Mwananchi rally, to be held on Sunday, August 15, in Homa Bay County, is not just a one-day event.

For key leaders in Nyanza and the country, it could be a defining moment with a huge political impact.

From day-and-night strategy meetings and bitter exchanges between leaders to claims of planned violence and activities ahead of the Siaya Governor James Orengo-led rally, the stakes could not be higher.

Depending on how the meeting goes on Sunday, the key political protagonists looking at these unfolding events with a keen eye will be President William Ruto, Orange Democratic Movement party leader Dr Oburu Oginga, Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, other leaders from the county, Interior Principal Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and the entire Linda Mwananchi brigade.

For Mr Orengo, who is the key leader organising the event, its success is definitely going to raise his profile within the Linda Mwananchi ranks and the Luo community.

So important is the rally for him that his Kisumu residence in Milimani has been a beehive of activities throughout this week in readiness for Sunday.

He has been meeting delegates from Homa Bay and Migori, the youth, aspirants from the two counties, clergy and influential politicians to strategise on the upcoming rally.

Analysts claim he will be using this weekend as a launching pad to become the regional kingpin and establish a base in another county after occupying Kisumu and Siaya. He is also eyeing the Linda Mwananchi presidential flag-bearer position.

On Thursday, delegates from Homa Bay and Migori counties endorsed Mr Orengo as the movement’s preferred presidential candidate, saying he possesses the experience, stature and leadership qualities needed to guide the outfit to victory.

The endorsement placed him at the centre of the movement’s political ambitions as its members seek to build momentum and chart a new course for the country.

This comes days after leaders and supporters from Western also endorsed Mr Sifuna to fly the movement’s flag.

The meeting, which was meant to plan the upcoming rally in Homa Bay on Sunday, turned into an endorsement event for the governor, who gladly accepted the challenge, vowing to walk the journey, starting with the counties of Nyanza.

He said the Luo community has sacrificed so much and borne the brunt of police brutality and the freedom struggle.

“This community cannot be in a movement in which they are just followers. They must lead from the front as part of the great Kenyan nation. We owe it to Raila, Jaramogi, Achieng Oneko, Odhiambo Mbai, Tom Mboya and Albert Ojwang because we have sacrificed our biggest names to our children,” said Mr Orengo.

He added: “I want to say that I accept the challenge with my spirit, my body, and everything I got, and we are going to run all over Kenya, beginning with Homa Bay, Migori, Kisumu and Siaya, to make sure that our home is safe.”

If the rally is successful, it will place him firmly as a principal in the opposition realm, ready to sit at the table with other like-minded partners as a Luo kingpin with the acclaim of a constituency behind him.

“For Orengo, he wants to ensure he is respected in the Linda Mwananchi team and shows that he can lead troops and negotiate on behalf of the whole community. Being too close to Raila, the kingship of the Luo community is at stake. He wants to illustrate that he is the political godfather,” said Mr Daniel Orogo, a political commentator.

For Mr Sifuna, whichever way it goes, he will either gain sympathy or show that his acceptance is growing beyond Nairobi and the Western region.

With the stakes high, there is fear of violence, since politicians are believed to go to great lengths to achieve their goals.

Then there is the host Governor Wanga, who will be seeking to prove that she has locked her stronghold against Linda Mwananchi forays.

She has been busy for the last few days, responding to and attacking Mr Orengo in public forums, radio interviews and meetings to discredit the Linda Mwananchi team.

The Orengo-led team has scheduled rallies in Nyandiwa, Sindo and Homa Bay Town. To counter this or muddy the ground, Ms Wanga has toured the three centres, urging locals not to embrace the ODM splinter faction.

Mr Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino had even claimed that Ms Wanga had organised goons and parallel meetings on that day to counter them.

The Homa Bay governor has been among individuals whose names have been floated for the running mate’s slot for Dr Ruto in 2027, and therefore she is keen to prove that she has the numbers and that she can fend off Linda Mwananchi forays.

“The stakes are high for Wanga because she is a potential running mate of Dr Ruto. Her bargaining power is based on how much she can consolidate her ground. If Linda Mwananchi can be seen to have successful rallies with crowds, it complicates her inclusion in the negotiating table, and also ODM,” said Mr Orogo.

Dr Omollo, the Interior PS who hails from the same county, will also be watching the events keenly and will want to show that he is in charge and can protect the interests of the President.

Therefore, just like Ms Wanga, he will want to illustrate that the county, which has benefited heavily from national government projects, is not an opposition playground.

The Head of State is also not left behind. He is keen on Homa Bay because it has always been his gateway to the Luo community and where he has poured most of the national government projects and expects more support.

He has also given them critical dockets in the form of Cabinet Secretary for Treasury John Mbadi and Interior PS Dr Omollo.

For Dr Oburu Oginga and ODM, if the rally is successful, it will mean Mr Orengo stamping his authority as the de facto party leader, a position he has enthroned himself into.

Ahead of the rally, the party has painted Homa Bay orange, placing flags on the streets and distributing merchandise bearing the party’s colours just to shield against external rivals who will be coming in blue and white colours.

To many, this is marking their territory, which is under threat from new parties seeking to get a chunk of the once Raila Odinga stronghold.

Police will also be on the radar of many to see just how well and impartially they manage the situation.

Reporting originally appeared via Nation Africa. Read the full source for additional context.