"300 million jobs at risk": The new reality for graduates in Kenya and beyond

This story has significance for readers across Kenya and beyond.

Editor’s Note: In this article, strategic analyst Alex Munyua examines the breakdown of the traditional social contract that linked education to stable employment in Kenya and similar economies. Munyua argues that while the 'degree-to-job' ladder was once a reliable path to success, structural inefficiencies and the rise of AI have rendered it obsolete, leaving many graduates in informal work. He proposes a shift toward a 'mycorrhizal' model of resilience—inspired by forest ecosystems and the economic success of Botswana.

For decades, a quiet social contract shaped the ambitions of millions of young people across Kenya and similar economies: go to school, perform well, earn a certificate, and transition into stable employment. That promise structured behaviour, discipline, and expectations across generations.

Why are graduates facing unstable income cycles?

Today, that contract has quietly broken down. The sequence no longer produces reliable outcomes. Graduates are increasingly finding themselves in informal work, unstable income cycles, or prolonged unemployment. The uncomfortable truth is not that effort has disappeared. The truth is that the system no longer converts that effort into a consistent opportunity.

When people repeatedly invest time, energy, and discipline into a system that fails to reward them proportionally, they begin to reassess the system itself. First comes confusion. "Did I do something wrong?" Then frustration. "Why is this happening to me?" Then disillusionment. "Maybe the system was never designed for people like me." And finally, a quiet acceptance. "Survival matters more than structured progress."

At this point, the problem is no longer individual motivation. It is structural efficiency. People are not failing the system. The system is failing to translate human effort into meaningful outcomes at scale. If the last ten passengers who stepped into an elevator are still trapped in the lobby, the problem is no longer the passengers' posture. It is the engineering of the lift.

At the same time, the global economy is undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by automation and artificial intelligence. Tasks that once defined entry-level employment—routine administrative work, basic analysis, customer service, even parts of writing and coding—are being rapidly standardized and delegated to machines. According to a 2023 Goldman Sachs report, generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation across the US and Europe alone. Not just repetitive tasks, but the routine cognitive work that many degree holders currently perform.

This does not eliminate human relevance. But it significantly raises the threshold for what counts as valuable contribution. A resume stamped with rote memorization is an asset with a rapidly approaching shelf-life. The baseline is shifting away from repetition and toward adaptability. The economy is rewarding design over compliance. Those who can understand systems, identify gaps, and build functional solutions are increasingly outperforming those who simply follow established pathways.

Put simply: a young person who can spot a broken process and fix it will always have more options than one who only knows how to follow instructions. That is not opinion. That is where the data points.

What insights can Kenya gain from Botswana's approach?

Beneath forest ecosystems exists a vast underground network of fungi known as mycorrhizae. These networks connect the roots of trees, allowing them to exchange nutrients, share resources, and communicate signals about environmental threats. Trees are not isolated entities competing blindly for survival. They are part of a distributed system where balance is maintained through continuous exchange.

Within this network, a mature oak with surplus carbon routes excess nutrition through underground pipelines to feed a fragile sapling struggling in deep shade. The network optimises for the resilience of the entire canopy, not individual trees. When a tree on the forest's edge is attacked by pests, it injects biochemical warning signals into the mycorrhizal grid, allowing distant trees to manufacture defensive toxins before the pests arrive. This is structural resilience in biological form: shared intelligence, distributed resources, mutual accountability.

When this biological system is used as a lens for human society, it reveals an important insight. Societies that build strong internal networks of value exchange tend to be more resilient over time. Systems that allow resources, knowledge, and opportunity to circulate internally are better able to withstand shocks. Systems that continuously export value without reinvesting internally become fragile, even if they appear productive in the short term.

Consider Botswana. Newly independent in 1966, it was one of the poorest countries on earth, with massive diamond deposits. Instead of selling extraction rights cheaply, Botswana negotiated a 50/50 joint venture with De Beers, built local sorting and valuation capacity, and reinvested diamond revenues into education and infrastructure. The result was the fastest sustained growth of any nation in the last 50 years. The root system held.

Now consider Zambia. Facing debt pressure in the late 1990s, Zambia privatised its copper mines to foreign corporations under IMF-structured programmes. Royalty rates were set low, local processing capacity was not required, and tax revenues remained weak. When copper prices later surged, most windfall profits left the country. The local grid had been cut.

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The difference is not simply about the presence of resources. It is about the structure that governs how those resources are processed, distributed, and reinvested.

How can countries leverage non-exportable resources?

It is tempting to believe that debt levels or IMF conditions leave no room for manoeuvre. But history suggests otherwise. A system is only trapped if its operators accept the limitations of the current program as permanent. True resilience is built, not granted.

First, identify non-exportable, physical leverage points. Take control over regional logistical chokepoints, digital payment rails, and foundational energy grids. Botswana locked diamond beneficiation. Kenya could lock the M-Pesa payment rail as sovereign infrastructure. Rwanda locks aviation logistics. You do not beg for a seat at the table when you control the floor the table stands on.

Second, redirect sovereign capital away from vanity projects and toward domestic development grants that stabilise the private sector and build internal financial buffers. Follow Botswana's model: reinvest resource revenues into education, infrastructure, and local capacity. Every shilling kept inside the system today is a shilling that does not need to be borrowed tomorrow.

Third, dismantle the credential-mill model. Transition human capital from credentialed bystanders to operational builders. A learner should no longer spend years memorising roadmaps written by foreign corporations. They must enter with a real problem, build a practical solution, and scale it.

What would this look like on the ground? Meet James, a recent secondary school graduate in a Nairobi informal settlement. Instead of spending four years memorising theory, he is selected for a pilot program. His assignment: "Reduce rental deposit fraud in your ward by 50% within six months." Two weeks mapping scam patterns by interviewing neighbours. Four weeks designing a simple verification system using USSD or WhatsApp.

Four weeks deploying with a local landlord cooperative. Two weeks of measuring results, documenting failures, and iterating. James does not receive a certificate. He receives a live, revenue-generating micro-enterprise and a reputation score that follows him to his next opportunity. That is mycorrhizal education: learning by healing the soil.

This approach does more than train people. It rebuilds trust. When young people see that their effort translates directly into visible improvements in their environment, the relationship between learning and outcome becomes clearer. It reduces the psychological gap created when effort feels disconnected from reward. More importantly, it strengthens the internal structure of the economy by embedding problem-solving capacity within communities rather than concentrating it in distant institutions.

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The challenge is not that effort has decreased or that ambition has disappeared. The challenge is that the systems designed to absorb and convert that effort are no longer aligned with current realities. As technology accelerates and global systems become more complex, societies that adapt their internal structures will be better positioned to thrive. Those that continue operating on outdated models of education and employment will increasingly struggle to retain and utilise their human potential.

The future will not be determined by who has the most credentials, but by who can build the most effective systems for converting effort into outcomes. Progress is no longer just about moving up existing ladders. It is about redesigning the ladders themselves so that they actually lead somewhere meaningful.

That means, for a young person today, the smartest investment is no longer a certificate from a prestigious institution. It is the ability to look at a broken system, figure out why it is broken, and build a better one. That skill cannot be automated. That skill does not expire. And that skill belongs to anyone willing to learn it.

The storm will come. But when the roots are connected, aware, and deep, the mycorrhizal network holds the soil together. And the forest belongs to those who tend the roots.

The author, Alex Munyua, is a Kenyan strategic analyst.

Views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the editorial position of TUKO.co.ke.

Source: TUKO.co.ke

Reporting originally appeared via TUKO. Read the full source for additional context.